Midway & Forest Residential Real Estate Fall 2018 Market Update

By: Kaitlin Davison, Broker at Merchant Davison Real Estate

Midway & Forest Home Sales

In our neighborhood, the fall selling seasons had interesting results.

Home sales are down 74% from the same time last year while prices are holding steady.  

Fall is defined here as September 1 - November 30.


SALES: How Many homes sold?

Over the fall, 6 homes sold. That’s compared to 17 homes that sold over the summer. Below is a table with the break down of the price ranges of the sales comparing this year to last year.

 

Price Range

Fall 2017

Fall 2018

Under $650,000

16

2

$650,000-999,999

7

4

$1-1.5 million

0

0

Over $1.5 million

0

0

When we see a dramatic decrease like this, is brings up more questions. One of them being “Is it just this area or is it a broader trend?” The answer is: it is not just this area. City-wide, sales are down. Below are sales of city-wide single family homes.

 

Dallas Single Family Home Sales

Price Range

Fall 2017

Fall 2018

$400,000 - $650,000

476

407

$650,000 - 999,999

181

171

$1 - 1.5 million

86

97

$1.5 - 2.5 million

41

35

Click here to see more details on sales in neighborhoods and zip codes.

What this means for you: A lower number home sales is broader trend across the board in Dallas. This is something that we will keep an eye on. While it may point to a shift in market conditions, it is not necessarily. One possibility is sales have tempered from the influx of buyers associated with major corporations that moved to town last year.

Fall is not the best time to sell homes over $1 million in this area. No homes over $1 million sold this year or last in our neighborhood. Areas close by also saw very little activity in this price range.


Prices: How much did they sell for?

Below $1 million, there continues to be substantial increase in home prices compared to the same time last year. This is partly driven by increasing lot values. The numbers below are for the fall months only.

What this means for you: If your home is not new, relatively recently built, or completely remodeled, you’ve seen a substantial bump in home price this year. A significant portion of this comes from the increasing price that home builders and homeowners planning to scrape and build are willing to pay for lots. For example, one home that sold over the summer for $650,000 was torn down.

 

Price Range

Fall 2017 Average Price

Fall 2017 Sales

Fall 2018 Average Price

Fall 2018 Sales

Percent Increase in Price

Under $650,000

$517,000

16

$565,000

2

9.3%

$650,000-999,999

$743,000

7

$762,000

4

2.5%

$1-1.5 million

0

0

0

0

-

Over $1.5 million

0

0

0

0

-

List-to-Sales Prices: How much did it sell for?

 

List-to-Sell Price Ratio

Number of Homes

Greater than 100% (over list)

1

100% (list price)

1

98-99%

2

90-94%

1

Less than 90%

0

Days On Market: How long did it take to sell?

Under $1 million, it took about a month on average. Slightly longer under $650,000 and slightly faster closer to $1 million.
Over $1 million, it took closer to three months. Over $1.5 million went quickly with only 6 days on market.

What that means for you: If your home is over $1 million, expect greater volatility in how long it takes to sell. While it is always important to price homes to sell, the variation in days in market indicates that pricing homes under $650,000 appropriately is increasingly important. Homes that are priced right go quickly with average days on market of 3 days for homes that have sold and 6 days for those under contract. Homes that are still for sale have a much higher days on market of 108.

Days On Market

 

Price Range

Sold

Pending

Active

Under $650,000

3

6

108

$650,000-999,999

61

71

74

$1-1.5 million

-

-

75

Over $1.5 million

-

-

87

 

supply of inventory

Months supply of inventory is an ever changing metric. These are current as of writing in early December. Please reach out for current stats if you would like.

 

Price Range

Months Supply of Inventory

Favors

Under $650,000

2.5

Seller

$650,000-999,999

2

Seller

$1-1.5 million

2*

Seller

Over $1.5 million

4*

Seller

About Months Supply of Inventory

  • 6 months of inventory traditionally represents a balanced market with as many buyers as sellers. Neither has a significant upper hand in negotiations.

  • Less than 6 months of inventory traditionally represents a seller’s market with more buyers looking than there are homes for. Generally, the seller’s have the upper hand in negotiations. The tighter (smaller) the inventory, the more likely multiple offers are at play.

  • More than 6 months of inventory traditionally represents a buyer’s market with more homes for sale then buyers to purchase them. 

As we move into the slower season during the winter, buyers usually have a slight upper hand than in the summer because there’s less buyers shopping. 


Check back for the Winter 2018 Market Update in March or subscribe below to be the first to see it.


As the Senior Research Analyst for Keller William’s headquarters, I taught other agents how to use this information to become the “local market expert” and “economist of choice” in their markets. In my time with Keller Williams, I hired and supervised their head economist and developed market reports that agents still use today to market their businesses. 

The first and most basic tenant of the real estate market is: location, location, location. What’s happening locally is almost all that matters. Sure, it’s nice to understand what national economic or political conditions could impact our local market. But when it comes down to what matters, it’s our neighborhood metrics that matters most. 

What’s happening in one price range vastly differs from what’s happening in another. By breaking down that activity by price range, as our neighborhood spans a wide range of prices, we can look at data that is more actionable than broader research materials.